Today I will be sharing with you our perspective on the local real estate market here in Houston, Texas, specifically a market update for the neighborhood of Oak Forest. Whether you are looking to buy, sell, or just keep an eye on the market, we look forward to being your resource.
What is happening in the real estate market in Oak Forest?
We currently have 20 homes pending, with 12 homes sold in the last two weeks, averaging a sale price of $278 a square foot. Twelve homes sold over the asking price, with one home selling 3.5% above the listing price.
Compared to the two weeks prior, we haven’t seen big changes in the market. The average sales price in the neighborhood is $677,792. Every home is different, with different features, so don’t forget to ask us for your annual equity review if you are curious about your personal home. You can text AER to 79564 or email us here.
I know the interest rates rising has been one deterrent from some buyers purchasing right now, but that isn’t your ideal buyer anyways! And the educated buyer still knows, they need to buy ASAP. The most desirable homes in the area are still selling the first weekend or first week they hit the market (a really good coming soon campaign, like we do at Jo & Co. allows you to sell faster, for more money).
Check out the graphic below for a larger overview of the real estate market for the last two weeks in Oak Forest.
Jo's Two Cents
Nationally, we are seeing an increase in average days on market, which locally is only affecting 30-50% of homes. This means we are seeing an increase in inventory. Personally, we will be able to confirm this, when we have new market report data to look at on October 1st. This is good news for buyers who recognize that mortgage interest rates in the five to six percent range may seem high compared to the last couple of decades, but they are still low compared to any year going back as far as 1970. The number of new listings coming on the market has waned, but the increase in inventories is seen more so from a sharper decrease in buyer demand. All of this provides possible opportunities for buyers who remain in the market and might be able to come to a sales price that sellers might not have agreed to even a few months ago.
New construction contract cancellations are up locally and nationally, bringing the available new construction inventory in the Houston MLS to 9,030 homes. This is insanely good news for anyone looking to buy an inventory home right now. The incentives that are being offered are the best I personally have ever seen. Most builders are offering between $10,000 and $30,000 towards closing costs and/or offering to buy down interest rates to three percent and four percent. Here is a list I gathered a couple of weeks ago showcasing some of the builders offering really low-interest rate locks. The last two to three years were absolutely abnormal, so with normalcy and stabilization on the horizon, we should see the market pick back up post-November.
Recently the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications are also at 22-year lows, according to a MarketWatch article. That is due to a combination of lower sales but also a refinancing market that has dried up. They do say they see things turning around in the not-too-distant future, as economic data shows the job market is strong. That means higher wages, which means people can afford more. That combined with more inventory on the market means sales should eventually increase.
What is happening in the real estate market nationally?
Mortgage rates continued trending higher last week. Home price appreciation fell. New home
sales soared while mortgage application submissions slipped. Pending home sales decreased,
initial and continuing jobless claims fell, and GDP estimates for the second quarter fell as well. Inflation on the PCE index was higher than expected, personal income climbed, and consumer spending climbed as well.
|MORTGAGE RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING||THIS WEEK'S POTENTIAL VOLATILITY|
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The FHFA house price index fell 0.6% month-over-month in July. Year-over-year, the FHFA house price index climbed 13.9%, a decline from 16.3% the month before.
The 20-city Case-Shiller home price index also showed a monthly decline, falling 0.4% in July. The annual index showed a decelerating appreciation, up 16.1% vs. 18.7% the previous month.
New home sales surged 28.8% month-over-month in August, rising to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000.
Mortgage application submissions slipped 3.7% during the week ending 9/23.
Refinance application submissions decreased 11% and purchase application submissions dropped 0.4%.
Pending home sales dropped 2% month-over-month in August, a small change from the 0.6% drop the month before.
Continuing jobless claims fell 29,000 during the week ending 9/17 while initial jobless claims fell 16,000 during the week ending 9/24.
GDP estimates for the second quarter fell 0.6%.
In August, core inflation according to the PCE index climbed 0.6% month-over-month and 4.9% year-over-year. Both levels were higher than expected. Personal income climbed 0.3% and consumer spending climbed 0.4%.
Review of Last Week
RECESSION FEARS MOUNT… Stocks ended September at their lowest levels since 2020, booking their third straight quarterly loss, as investors feared that Fed rate hikes to tame inflation would drive the economy into recession.
Fueling the fears: the Core PCE Prices inflation index (excluding food and energy), jumped 0.6% in August; plus, initial jobless claims were the lowest since May, showing the economy and inflation aren't slowing much.
Consumer spending isn't slowing either, up 8.2% year-over-year. Inflation worries put University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment down at 58.6, versus 72.8 a year ago. At least New Home Sales rebounded nicely.
The week ended with the Dow down 2.9%, to 28,726; the S&P 500 down 2.9%, to 3,586; and the Nasdaq down 2.7%, to 10,576.
Bonds also headed south, with the 30-year UMBS 5.5% down 0.19, to $99.12. Lower bond prices mean higher rates, and the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose again in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.
DID YOU KNOW… Realtor.com reports, “today’s shoppers have more than 5 homes to consider for every 4 they had at this time a year ago.” This “will favor persistent and informed buyers who are ready to purchase.”
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING, MANUFACTURING, SERVICES, JOBS ALL SLIP… August Construction Spending is forecast down overall, but we'll see how the residential part fares. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indexes are also expected to dip for September but stay in expansion territory. Nonfarm Payrolls should be off in September too, while the Unemployment Rate holds.
New Home Sales jumped 28.8% in August, the largest monthly gain in more than two years. At a 0.685 million annual rate, sales are only 0.1% below a year ago and the median price was down 6.3% from the month before.
Home prices may be leveling off. Case-Shiller home prices dipped 0.2% in July, while FHFA prices of homes financed by conforming mortgages fell 0.6%, the largest monthly drops for both since 2011, though they're still well up annually.
The NAR’s Pending Home Sales index of contracts on existing homes slid 2.0% in August, but their chief economist noted, “If mortgage rates moderate and the economy continues adding jobs, then home buying should also stabilize.”
Can we sell yours?
So if you are in need of a listing agent, we would love the opportunity to see your home and meet you of course. My husband, Edward, and I, look forward to being the brokerage and team for you! You can reach out to us via email: [email protected] & [email protected] or telephone: 832-493-6685.
If you are curious ‘How to get more money for your home when listing it for sale', check out this blog post.
I hope you have found this blog post super helpful. If there is anything else we can do for you, including helping you sell (or buy) a home, I would be honored to assist. I hope you have a great day/evening. Cheers, E + J.
We are so happy you found our little corner of the interwebs. We look forward to y'all reaching out to us. We love to answer questions and welcome them. Recently we created some local maps, and you can download those by clicking the image/link above. Below, you will find an index of some very helpful information to assist you in learning more about the Houston suburbs. If you are relocating to our neck of the woods, we hope you reach out to us, because we would love to help you by being your local realtor and friend. Thoughtfully written for you. Hugs, Jo.
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